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International spillovers of output growth and output growth volatility:evidence from the G7

机译:产出增长和产出增长波动的国际溢出效应:G7的证据

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摘要

This paper examines the transmission of GDP growth and GDP growth volatility among the G7 countries over the period 1960Q1 – 2010Q4, using a multivariate GARCH model and volatility impulse response functions (VIRFs) to identify the source, magnitude and the duration of volatility spillovers. Results indicate the presence of positive own-country GDP growth spillovers in each country and cross-country GDP growth spillovers among most of the G7 countries. In addition, the large number of significant own-country output growth volatility spillovers and cross-country output growth volatility spillovers indicates that output growth shocks in most of the G7 countries affect output growth volatility in the other remaining countries. An additional finding is that the duration of output growth volatility spillovers has increased over time from some seven quarters in the 1970s to some ten quarters during the recent crisis, which is likely to be due to the increased integration of goods and financial markets.
机译:本文使用多元GARCH模型和波动率冲激响应函数(VIRF)来确定波动率溢出的来源,幅度和持续时间,从而考察了G960国家在1960Q1至2010Q4期间GDP增长的传导速度。结果表明,每个国家/地区都存在本国GDP增长溢出的正数,而大多数G7国家/地区都存在跨国GDP增长溢出的情况。此外,大量重大的本国产出增长波动性溢出和跨国产出增长波动性溢出表明,七国集团大多数国家的产出增长冲击影响了其他其余国家的产出增长波动性。另一个发现是,随着时间的推移,产出增长波动性溢出的持续时间从1970年代的大约七个季度增加到最近的危机期间的大约十个季度,这很可能是由于商品和金融市场一体化程度的提高。

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